When copper wiring, aluminum components, or old batteries reach the end of their useful lives, much of their metal can eventually return to the supply chain.
But tungsten fired at an enemy generally doesn’t.
When it’s used in armor-piercing rounds, missile components, penetrators, interceptors, and fragmentation systems, it’s scattered, pulverized, buried, or vaporized.
And you can bet that metal won’t be collected from the battlefield and delivered to a recycling plant.
And after years of war in Ukraine and expanding conflict involving Iran, the United States and its allies have expended an enormous amount of military equipment.
We don’t know exactly how much tungsten has been consumed.
Governments understandably don’t publish complete material inventories for every missile, artillery shell, interceptor, or aircraft component.
But the trend is pretty obvious…
Ukraine has burned through artillery ammunition, anti-armor weapons, missiles, drones, replacement barrels, heavy equipment, and industrial tooling at rates Western planners never anticipated during peacetime.
Operations involving Iran have added demand for air-defense interceptors, cruise missiles, precision weapons, bunker-penetrating munitions, aircraft components, and replacement parts.
And the Pentagon was already seeking proposals to expand supplies of tungsten and 12 other defense-critical minerals before the latest strikes began.
Now the West must replenish what it’s used while also rearming NATO, expanding missile defenses, supporting allies, and preparing for a possible conflict in the Pacific.
That’s going to require more than defense appropriations….
It’ll require physical materials. And lots of them.
The Metal Behind the Weapons
As you may or may not already know, tungsten has the highest melting point of any pure metal.
It’s also exceptionally dense, extremely hard, resistant to wear, and capable of performing under tremendous heat and pressure.
And those characteristics make it vital in armor-piercing ammunition, kinetic-energy penetrators, missile parts, rocket nozzles, aircraft components, jet engines, electronics, and radiation shielding.
But tungsten’s importance goes far beyond what’s contained inside the weapons. Or, you could say it starts far before them…
You see, tungsten carbide is used in the drill bits, cutting inserts, machining tools, dies, and wear-resistant equipment required to manufacture artillery shells, aircraft engines, armored vehicles, and precision missile components.
And that means tungsten supports military production twice…
It goes into certain weapons directly. But it also goes into the machinery needed to cut, shape, drill, and finish nearly everything else.
So, when defense production expands, manufacturers need more tungsten-bearing weapons and more tungsten-carbide tooling to keep their factories operating.
Unfortunately, the country controlling the largest share of this metal is also America’s principal geopolitical rival…
China Controls the Choke Point
China produces roughly 80% of the world’s mined tungsten. That’s a lot…
But it also controls an even larger portion of the processing capacity needed to convert ore into chemicals, powders, carbides, and finished material.
And that processing dominance matters…
It means a tungsten deposit outside China doesn’t necessarily represent an independent Western supply source.
Because, when its ore must be sent to China for refining, Beijing still controls a critical stage of its journey to the manufacturer.
But Western companies accepted this arrangement for decades because Chinese tungsten was plentiful and inexpensive.
And that made competing mines and processing facilities in North America and Europe uneconomical.
But while that might have been efficient during peacetime, it looks reckless now…
China imposed export controls on tungsten products and technologies in February 2025 and shook markets.
The new restrictions required exporters to obtain government licenses before sending covered material overseas.
Then, in December 2025, Beijing named just 15 companies authorized to export tungsten during the 2026–2027 licensing period.
The decision wasn’t a complete embargo, but it concentrated control over which buyers receive material, how much they can obtain, and how quickly it can leave China.
And that’s because China doesn’t need to prohibit every shipment to disrupt Western industry…
It can approve civilian customers while delaying material destined for sensitive industries.
It can favor particular countries or companies. And it can tighten or loosen the flow as geopolitical conditions change.
It only needs to make tungsten slower, less predictable, and more expensive to have a big impact.
Western Manufacturers Are Fighting Over Scraps
With Chinese exports restricted and major new Western mines still limited, manufacturers are drawing from a shrinking pool.
It consists of limited imported material, recycled tungsten, strategic inventories, and industrial scrap.
But those backup sources were never designed to replace China’s share of the market.
Recycling can recover tungsten from worn cutting tools, drill bits, machining inserts, and industrial equipment.
But supply is constrained by how much scrap becomes available and whether domestic processors can even secure it…
Factories can’t recycle metal they don’t have. And Chinese buyers have reportedly offered American scrap dealers multiples of normal market prices for tungsten-bearing material.
Now, the simplest explanation (and the one the mainstream press is running with) is that Chinese manufacturers need more feedstock for their own industrial, aerospace, and military sectors.
But every shipment sent east removes material from a Western supply chain already starved of reliable imports.
And the unusually high premiums (one dealer reported Chinese buyers offering five times market rates) also raise a harder question…
China has long treated critical minerals as strategic assets.
So, it’s reasonable to wonder whether some buyers are receiving “state encouragement” to secure material before Western manufacturers can obtain it.
Now, there’s no public evidence proving the Chinese Communist Party is directing these specific purchases.
But the outcome is pretty useful to Beijing whether the coordination exists or not…
Chinese factories receive more tungsten. Western recyclers lose feedstock. American manufacturers pay higher prices.
And a critical metal is removed from the countries trying to reduce their dependence on China.
So, the objective could be feeding Chinese factories, building strategic inventories, depriving Western competitors, or accomplishing all three simultaneously.
Twenty Thousand Tons Per Year
Now’s a good time to point out that the United States hasn’t operated a commercial tungsten mine since 2015.
It relies completely and totally on foreign production, imports, stockpiles, and recycling.
Yet industry projections suggest America could require approximately 20,000 metric tons of tungsten annually within only a few years.
That’s roughly one-quarter of current global mine production. And America won’t be the only buyer…
Europe is rebuilding its military. Ukraine will need to replenish depleted inventories again.
Israel and U.S. allies in the Middle East are expanding missile-defense capacity.
And Japan, South Korea, and Australia are preparing for greater security risks in Asia.
Meanwhile, China has enormous military, industrial, semiconductor, aerospace, and infrastructure needs of its own.
So, Congress can approve hundreds of billions of dollars for defense. And contractors can expand factories and install new production lines…
But those factories can’t manufacture tungsten that hasn’t been mined, processed, or recycled.
The wars in Ukraine and Iran have exposed the shortage. China’s export controls have turned it into a geopolitical weapon.
And the scramble for the West’s remaining scrap suggests the battle for supply has already begun.